Confronting Climate Change

Unabated carbon emissions will cause dangerous climate change in this century, with major implications for economic growth, agricultural production, mortality and poverty in developing countries. The Center for Global Development has launched this initiative because climate change threatens to undermine the whole development agenda. The initiative has three major themes: Combating climate change, assessing the stakes for developing countries, and integrating climate change into development assistance.

This initiative, led by CGD senior fellow David Wheeler, builds on work by William Cline, a senior fellow jointly at CGD and the Peterson Institute. Cline’s new book, Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country, provides the first worldwide, country-level estimates of the agricultural impact of climate change through 2080. His findings starkly reveal the stakes for developing countries: reduced agricultural potential of 45% in India, and similar losses in much of Sub-Saharan Africa. The implications of such findings for global stability--not to mention development - highlight the need to reduce carbon emissions, as well as preparing for the impacts that past emissions have made inevitable.

Climate Change Transparency A potentially-dominant constituency awaits mobilization in developed countries, as well as in China, India and other developing nations. Hundreds of millions of concerned global citizens can promote climate-friendly products and technologies as consumers, investors, shareholders, managers and workers. All they need to act is timely, accurate, publicly-available information about the choices they face. To meet this challenge, CGD launched a global, web-based initiative called Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) on November 14th, 2007 that promotes carbon emissions reduction using public disclosure techniques that have significantly reduced conventional pollution in both developed and developing countries.

The Stakes for Developing Countries Which countries are most vulnerable to climate change? How will the distribution of energy resources affect countries' willingness and ability to accept restrictions on their carbon emissions? Are renewable energy resources sufficient for a rapid transition from fossil fuel use? What are the implications of this transition for employment and the welfare of the poor? CGD will supply this information, as well as undertaking additional research on the economics of the transition to renewables in developing countries.

Integrating Climate Change Into Development Assistance The challenge of development will be further complicated by two new imperatives: limiting carbon emissions, and adapting to the impact of sea-level rise and destructive weather events. Without technical and financial assistance, most poor countries are unlikely to meet these challenges. CGD will assist by tracking the integration of climate change into development assistance, and by comparing the performance of assistance providers.